Wednesday 17 April 2013

Round 2 Part 1 Summary


So, this is my summary from Round 2 - Part 1. 
Part 2 will commence once the markets are looking good again !

I finished up on £8,352 in profit which is great, not nearly what I had achieved in Round 1 (yet) but given the time frame I am aiming at here, I am perfectly on track to double my money within a year.

Some interesting points are; Firstly, I started shorting stocks this time round. Secondly, I started betting on indices, which in hindsight was a big mistake.

I have had so many questions from readers in the past about my hedging strategy, and the way the markets looked to be going it seemed to becoming more apparent that I should possibly be looking at one. 

I looked into various ways to hedge; shorting an index, shorting stocks or buying options. I didn’t go for options as they are expensive and complicated, my bets on the indices didn’t work, but my shorts on stocks worked out.

I lost a massive £8,304 on my FTSE250 short. This was clearly a big mistake. it doesn't really make sense betting on an index going down when all your other bets are long. Having some short bets in my portfolio is not a bad idea, with sticking to the same rules I do as any other bet, but taking a huge bet on a index is risky. 
I need to take a view on the market and back myself for that view. I can always hedge myself with a few opposing bets but the majority should follow my overall sense of the market.

Anyway, lesson well learnt and I ended up £2,000 better off with my shorts, so all in all, not bad (it could have been a lot worse).

I have also included a table showing my running profit & loss day to day with a comparison to the FTSE250, FTSE100 and FTSE All Share indices. I am not sure exactly what this tells me yet but it is interesting nonetheless. I need to so some more analysis.

Other stats; my average bet was 19.5 days (including weekends). I earned a respectable 18.56% return on my money invested.

Happy investing to you guys, I hope that you are navigating these choppy waters without too much disaster. I'll be watching the markets for some kind of entry signal.

Until then...

(Please note that the numbers below were entered manually by me, so there might be some fat finger issues - please let me know if you find any problems with them but I will go through them again tomorrow as I need to do some proper analysis on them)



Tuesday 16 April 2013

Update....

Just a quick note to all of you loyal readers - I have not disappeared, I will post my summary from my latest trades this week - I promise! 

I'm just putting the data together.. 

Friday 12 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 7 Day 4 Trade Log


Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,426.00 1,320.71 (SOLD @ 3,424.60) 44.00 53.18
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 253.30 2,169.60 (SOLD @ 251.94) -10.16 86.86
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,671.00 3,118.16 (SOLD @ 1,685.78) 6.03 125.18
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 879.85 -9.83 (SOLD @ 880.60) 98.30 -0.39
Staffline Long 399.00 393.00 -630.24 (SOLD @ 392.01) -200.03 -25.21
Meggitt Long 485.99 485.90 2.65 (SOLD @ 486.09) 100.59 0.11
Running profit / loss 8,352.77
Diff from prev day 1,946.91

Wednesday 10 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 7 Day 3 Trade Log


Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 275.25 -705.46 (SOLD @ 267.39) -164.86 -28.26
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,387.00 917.14 128.25 36.93
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 250.10 2,414.94 2.23 96.69
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,695.00 2,940.79 3.02 118.06
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 866.50 -576.72 52.73 -23.08
Staffline Long 399.00 396.70 -210.06 53.45 -8.40
Meggitt Long 485.99 479.90 -450.26 66.30 -18.07
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,732.00 -2,425.66 (SOLD @ 2,711.48) -27.79 -98.22
Dunelm Long 851.60 841.00 -1,302.70 (SOLD @ 820.46) -753.45 -52.34
Running profit / loss 6,405.86
Diff from prev day 307.99

Round 2 : Week 7 Day 2 Trade Log


Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 270.75 -266.35 -163.37 -10.67
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,339.00 401.82 -47.66 16.18
Lonmin Short 329.07 295.00 4,933.36 (SOLD @ 283.52) -17.63 197.43
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 250.50 2,362.17 -13.63 94.57
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,699.50 2,854.57 -27.07 114.60
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 850.50 -1,220.10 -42.29 -48.83
Savills Long 536.30 512.00 -2,050.16 (SOLD @ 505.54) -55.22 -82.12
Staffline Long 399.00 394.00 -451.22 -0.10 -18.05
Meggitt Long 485.99 467.80 -1,336.03 -24.64 -53.61
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,782.00 -1,898.20 -36.19 -76.86
Dunelm Long 851.60 848.00 -152.64 75.86 -6.13
Running profit / loss 6,097.88
Diff from prev day -4,921.85

Monday 8 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 7 Day 1 Trade Log

Up £1,300 on Friday which is great.

I'm still a massive £12,542 from my peak last week Wednesday but hey, at least I am moving in the right direction!

Hikma hit my stop and sold so down to 12 bets - am still going to hold on and see what happens over the next few days or weeks before I place any more bets.

I hope you have all had a similar recovery today!

Until tomorrow...

Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 276.00 420.29 280.58 16.84
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,373.00 767.66 4.32 30.91
Lonmin Short 329.07 273.80 5,988.96 -1.61 239.68
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 247.70 2,735.10 23.39 109.50
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,644.50 3,914.03 -2.41 157.13
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 859.50 -857.49 46.46 -34.32
Savills Long 536.30 516.50 -1,320.78 -218.65 -52.91
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Long 1,035.60 995.50 -1,944.03 (SOLD @ 978.95) -27.00 -78.30
Staffline Long 399.00 394.00 -450.76 22.89 -18.03
Meggitt Long 485.99 471.40 -1,071.90 17.91 -43.01
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,824.00 -1,393.79 8.62 -56.44
Dunelm Long 851.60 836.50 -632.27 37.25 -25.41
Running profit / loss 11,019.74
Diff from prev day 1,307.33

Saturday 6 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 6 Dismal Round Up

That was an interesting but extremely dismal week.

it started off well enough, up £2k on Tuesday and then a further £561 on Wednesday and then...it all went tits up on Thursday (excuse my French).

I have lost just short of £14k in 2 days with 6 of my bets hit their stop losses. I am now down to 12 open bets! 
I am certainly not going to open any more in the near future (well, not any long positions in any case)

I have effectively lost just short of a months profits. Wow, a huge hit!

I am not sure if I should close all of my long bets, I will definitely give that some serious thought on Monday if this downward spiral continues, let's see what happens though.

My shorts are doing well though, not surprisingly  This does make me wonder if I shoudl be balancing my portfolio with more shorts...

Investors are clearly seeing the big picture; cheap money is not going to be around forever. This bull run has mainly been driven by governments printing money than the underlying economy actually improving - I think anyway.

Well, at least it's sunny for a change in London!

Hope you all have a great weekend.

Until Monday...

Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 271.00 -232.74 -131.11 -9.32
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,370.00 735.90 -46.72 29.63
Lonmin Short 329.07 272.90 6,087.03 1.44 243.60
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 251.60 2,216.71 575.62 88.75
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,639.50 4,010.72 3.21 161.01
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 841.00 -1,601.49 -21.38 -64.09
Savills Long 536.30 530.12 -414.49 -138.60 -16.60
888 Long 168.42 162.60 -749.35 (SOLD @ 164.90) -263.32 -29.98
Xaar Long 421.50 396.00 -1,413.31 (SOLD @ 404.81) -990.85 -56.70
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Long 1,035.60 991.00 -1,530.68 -152.77 -61.65
Staffline Long 399.00 392.50 -584.53 -85.22 -23.38
John Wood Long 866.90 842.50 -926.97 (SOLD @ 844.36) -820.25 -37.26
Meggitt Long 485.99 468.20 -1,305.83 -217.11 -52.40
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,813.00 -1,525.34 -108.12 -61.76
Dunelm Long 851.60 827.50 -1,007.55 -22.99 -40.48
Running profit / loss 9,712.14
Diff from prev day -6,436.15

Thursday 4 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 6 Day 3 Trade Log

An abysmal day...

Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 278.50 748.00 -8.09 29.97
Diageo Long 1,952.00 2,046.00 2,468.05 (SOLD @ 2,069.87) -10.07 98.97
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,430.00 1,381.15 -14.07 55.61
Spectris Long 2,367.00 2,367.00 -149.15 (SOLD @ 2,357.90) -112.10 -6.00
Interserve Long 497.34 469.50 -1,263.84 (SOLD @ 479.87) -115.28 -50.60
Lonmin Short 329.07 273.70 6,000.60 6.54 240.14
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 265.80 328.10 -80.22 13.14
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,646.00 3,885.99 2.01 156.00
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 848.00 -1,319.36 -84.46 -52.80
Savills Long 536.30 533.74 -173.72 -5.54 -6.96
888 Long 168.42 170.60 458.82 -21.77 18.36
Xaar Long 421.50 420.00 -129.56 -0.36 -5.20
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Long 1,035.60 1,018.00 -605.56 -382.02 -24.39
Staffline Long 399.00 395.50 -315.58 12.30 -12.62
John Wood Long 866.90 864.50 -100.73 -119.57 -4.05
Meggitt Long 485.99 480.40 -411.79 -212.79 -16.52
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,879.00 -732.91 -1,412.40 -29.68
Dunelm Long 851.60 832.00 -819.22 -377.29 -32.92
Running profit / loss 16,148.30
Diff from prev day -7,413.68

Round 2 : Week 6 Day 2 Trade Log


Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 279.00 813.83 -7.48 32.61
Diageo Long 1,952.00 2,062.50 2,744.53 0.32 110.06
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,456.00 1,607.30 21.98 64.72
Spectris Long 2,367.00 2,430.00 1,232.40 -16.32 49.59
Interserve Long 497.34 476.42 -587.06 -162.85 -23.50
Lonmin Short 329.07 278.90 5,632.01 22.98 225.39
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 261.83 1,658.87 10.61 66.41
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,667.50 3,809.39 13.79 152.93
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 855.00 -715.27 -44.95 -28.63
Savills Long 536.30 532.83 -164.60 -37.72 -6.59
888 Long 168.42 168.50 586.49 218.42 23.46
Xaar Long 421.50 430.00 -129.09 -0.37 -5.18
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Long 1,035.60 1,023.00 -125.63 -168.62 -5.06
Staffline Long 399.00 395.50 -359.86 -295.84 -14.40
John Wood Long 866.90 877.00 514.70 615.73 20.69
Meggitt Long 485.99 488.50 365.09 -39.15 14.65
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,871.00 -48.46 77.56 -1.96
Dunelm Long 851.60 841.00 -171.64 64.56 -6.90
Running profit / loss 23,561.98
Diff from prev day 561.16

Wednesday 3 April 2013

Round 2 : Week 6 Day 1 Trade Log


Stock Long/Short Entry Price Latest Price Current profit/loss % on prev day % on total risk
Cineworld Long 272.68 278.85 879.67 7.83 35.24
Diageo Long 1,952.00 2,110.50 2,735.91 6.70 109.71
Intertek Long 3,300.30 3,432.00 1,317.64 33.64 53.06
Porvair Long 198.50 210.50 1,960.26 (SOLD @ 209.48) -6.54 78.51
Spectris Long 2,367.00 2,456.00 1,472.81 11.21 59.26
Interserve Long 497.34 499.40 934.09 606.95 37.40
Lonmin Short 329.07 278.40 4,579.73 10.73 183.28
Tullett Prebon Short 268.33 253.00 1,499.68 24.11 60.04
Anglo American Short 1,848.60 1,636.00 3,347.71 11.50 134.39
Hargreaves Lansdown Long 886.90 866.50 -493.47 3.66 -19.75
Savills Long 536.30 538.87 -119.52 -36.77 -4.79
888 Long 168.42 169.60 184.19 304.70 7.37
Xaar Long 421.50 420.00 -128.62 -143.56 -5.16
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Long 1,035.60 1,034.00 183.07 431.23 7.37
Staffline Long 399.00 395.00 -90.91 66.14 -3.64
John Wood Long 866.90 863.50 -99.80 -508.54 -4.01
Meggitt Long 485.99 492.80 599.95 63.48 24.08
Rotork Long 2,940.00 2,935.00 -216.00 (BOUGHT) -8.75
Dunelm Long 851.60 841.11 -484.30 (BOUGHT) -19.46
Running profit / loss 23,000.82
Diff from prev day 2,163.00